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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."